Freshwater species face double trouble from climate change and invasive predators. Fish Futures’ Finnbar Lee, Ian A. K. Kusabs, George L. W. Perry, and Calum MacNeil offer a way forward. They developed a ‘Refugia Habitat Metric’ to find areas that will stay suitable for native species but unsuitable for invasive ones under future climate conditions. Using kōura (Paranephrops planifrons) and invasive catfish (Ameiurus nebulosus) as a case study, they modelled habitat changes to 2100. Results show catfish habitat expanding in the northern and western North Island, while kōura habitat shrinks and shifts south into mountainous regions.
The RHM helps identify refugia and potential translocation sites—giving conservation managers a practical tool to protect vulnerable species.